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haven't claimed that the variation is random — in fact harland williams I think it is unlikely to be random since the states where poverty increased are mostly contiguous. (The sole exception, Wisconsin, is nearly contiguous as it is harland williams separated only by Lake Michigan.)...they should have been counterweighted by equally strong increases in other statesThe increases were not so much counterweighted (the three states that harland williams experienced a drop in poverty rates — Arkansas, Hawaii, and Oklahoma — have fairly small populations) as they are mitigated by the fact that the poverty rate in most states was unchanged from the previous year.One cannot conveniently exclude a part from the whole in such an analysis, at least not without strong justification as to why it should be considered separatelyI was not excluding anything.
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